Key to Happiness
Lam Group Newsletter by Lam Group Investment Management
P.O. Box 850, Lake Oswego, Ore. 97034
April 28: The key to happiness is low expectations: Despite volatility in February, performance for 2006's first quarter was unexpectedly strong, and 2Q is off to a roaring start...We continue to believe that exposure to non-dollar equity and fixed-income markets, as well as real assets, such as real estate and commodities, are essential diversifying elements for properly balanced portfolios.

-- Nelson Lam

Emotional Market
Sentiment Survey by Asbury Research
7 Asbury Court, Lake in the Hills, Ill. 60156
April 26: Investor-sentiment measures, as they pertain to the U.S. dollar, have been uncharacteristically conflicting and inconclusive for most of this year, indicating uncertainty on the future direction of the greenback, while establishing its current level as a possible longer-term inflection point.
More recently, however, these sentiment measures have started to come back into sync...and now suggest that the dollar's recent decline is likely to continue for the near-term...[yet] this decline should ultimately lead into a much larger rally in the greenback.

-- John Kosar

One More Rally?
Daily Market Comment by CyberTrader
Wild Basin Road, Austin, Texas 78716
April 26: After an initial thrust higher at the open [Tuesday], the bears took charge and dominated trading action the rest of the morning. But the bulls...rallied the market in the afternoon and recovered much of the territory lost....Volatility also failed to confirm [Tuesday's] market decline...I'd thought that might be the bulls' last best chance to rally...but [found] myself disappointed in the quality of the bears' work...Long-term interest rates again moved to new highs...A top in rates will likely be related to a shift in stock leadership.

-- Ken Tower

Back in Business
U.S. Durable Goods Orders by Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.
1 Liberty Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10006
April 26: Aided by rebounds in underlying activity that had showed weakness in February and January, headline durable goods orders jumped by a month-over-month 6.1% in March, after an upward- revised 3.4% gain in February (previously reported as 2.7%), an 8.9% plunge in January, a 2.5% gain in December, and a 5.3% surge in November. The reported result in March, which was swollen by further gains in orders for civilian aircraft and defense capital goods as well as the aforementioned rebound elsewhere, compared to a median market forecast of about +2%. But, as usual, market interest lies in the details, rather than the often volatile overall result.
On an underlying basis, this was a very strong report that followed two weak months. These data tend to be volatile and lumpy, so a single monthly outcome is usually best not extrapolated. Growth trends in key indicators here are reasonably stable at firm levels, with the March bounce bringing things closer to where they were before January/February softness.

-- Joshua Shapiro

The Impossibles
Quarterly Commentary by Patton Albertson
478 Poplar St., Macon, Ga. 31201
April 26: In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, Alice has a perplexing conversation with the White Queen, who claims to be "One hundred and one, five months, and a day old."
The Queen pleaded with Alice to try to believe it. Alice replied, "There's no use trying, one can't believe impossible things." Queen: "I dare say you haven't had much practice; when I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes, I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
We share Alice's exasperation when we observe politicians and Wall Street strategists seemingly believing impossible things. We could list more than six impossibilities they subscribe to, but for now [here's one]: America's current account balance (the difference between our export of goods and services and our import of goods and services) is nothing to worry about, despite the fact it is in massive deficit...Change the reference point to their personal budgets and they'd have a diametrically opposite answer.

-- William Miller